Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the country and triggered chaos, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. Each composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate say they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified arguments, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
